Kansas is Getting Blown Out a Lot More Recently...

Jayhawks Lose by 34 at BYU, a troubling trend for the program

Last night KU got smoked by BYU - a 34-point loss that invoked memories of Evan and Isaiah Mobley smacking the Jayhawks in a 2nd round NCAA Tournament game in 2021 (oh hey, USC had a D. Peterson - maybe it took one to start this and one to end it).

Those double-digit loss issues persisted prior to that USC loss in the 2020-2021 season. Since the start of that season - so the last five if you include this year - Kansas has suffered 22 double-digit losses, an average 4.4 per season (for now). Obviously that includes a National Title winning team and another one-seed that was hurt by not having their head coach for the NCAA Tournament, but still… In Bill Self’s first 17 seasons in Lawrence, there were 38 such defeats, an average of 2.2 per season. Doesn’t take a mathematician to know that’s half of what it’s been.

What about losses of 15+ points? 32 in Self’s tenure at Kansas, 14 of which have come in the last five seasons (2.8 per) compared to 18 in the first 17 (1.1 per).

What about of 20+? 16 for Self at KU, 9 of which have come in the last five seasons (1.8 per) compared to 7 in the first 17 (0.4 per).

Then of course if you look at the six games that Kansas has lost by 29+ under Self, three have occurred in the last two seasons and four in the last five. The other two were the infamous ‘vodka’ game against Kentucky in the 2014 Champions Classic and a 2019 beatdown in Lubbock by Texas Tech.

So what gives? Why is Kansas losing by bigger margins more often?

Are the teams just worse? I mean they won a title and had the best team in 2020, plus got another one-seed in 2023. But the two worst teams of the Self era are probably these last two, and the 2018-2019 + 2020-2021 seasons weren’t ones to write home about either.

Is it NIL? Kansas has about as strong of an NIL game as anyone. In fact, that’s why they have some of these players. They are out-paying a majority of other teams in the country. That’s why they wound up with Hunter Dickinson, AJ Storr, etc. Now have they chosen some of the wrong players to pay and when things go wrong it’s easier to go into a shell and just cash your checks? Probably, but I don’t think there recent struggles are about NIL.

What about the transfer portal? Yes. Kansas has swung and missed repeatedly. And even some hits haven’t been roster fits. In a day and age where the portal is a requisite to roster building, it hasn’t worked for KU. Plus, there’s a real argument (one I would make) about Kansas needing to use the portal in a way that is for a missing piece here or there (think Kevin McCullar, Josh Jackson from a freshman perspective) as opposed to an overhaul/be-all-end-all that disregards player development and high school recruiting.

What about picking the wrong players? Also, yes. AJ Storr over Liam McNeeley? All the players that caused Labaron Philon to leave? Not taking on Harrison Ingram, who went off for a one-seed UNC team and was kind of a perfect college four in a lot of ways? All misses and plenty more!

Self not aging gracefully in this profession and his health issues changing things? Could be it has caused him to coach differently, but not sure we will have an answer on this one until a different crop of players comes in.

Just a bad run for KU after so many hits on diamonds in the rough? Also possible. The run of hitting on non-blue chippers like Devonte’ Graham, Frank Mason, Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, etc. is insane and is hard to sustain, though going away from it more probably doesn’t increase your odds at it either.

An inability to adjust to the current popular style of analytics based basketball? Kansas shoots A LOT of mid-range, hasn’t shot a ton of threes and the 2018 team feels like a far-cry. Is that more about the personnel though or Self?

Just the state of the current game with the three-ball? This is something we’ve seen in the NBA - when a team is on from three and the other is not, it’s going to lead to more blowouts than basketball back in the day, so yes this one is part of it.

Overall, you can come to your own conclusion about which of these has the biggest impact, but I do think it’s a combination of a handful of them. Unfortunately, the solution isn’t on the doorstep, and there could be a few more entries this season for the ‘Hawks.